Methods of work to be used in the project
SWOT analysis
SWOT analysis is the study of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Investigation focuses on pointing the condition of a given area of science or technology, and defining how external and internal factors influence the region. The strengths and weaknesses are defined in reference to internal factors, while opportunities and threats have their sources beyond the area studied. SWOT analysis is one of methods of strategic analysis that is frequently used in the initial phase of implementing foresight projects.
Delphi method
The essence of the Delphi method is to acquire knowledge from experts through series of questions, with the answers from the preceding round allowing narrowing down the area of the successive round. From the technical point of view, the Delphi method is based on repeated opinion polling among a group of selected experts who may not communicate or consult in the matter. The experts should have broad knowledge of the subject matter and experience in the field in question, yet at the same time they should have a wide understanding and experience in the scope of the given field “impacting” its broadly understood environment. The experts are anonymous. Each of them justifies the results presented. Having collected the results and investigated them, the project facilitator proposes another version of the questionnaire – narrowing down and fine tuning the area of activity – and sends it back to the same experts again. The cycle repeats several times until a certain consensus among experts has been achieved, the priorities have been sufficiently narrowed down, and a coherent image of the development of the given field has been built.
Cross-impact analysis method
The Delphi method provides information about isolated facts without stating their interrelationships and trends. The cross-impact analysis allows complementation of those gaps and dynamic presentation of scenarios that are the final result of the project. It is based on constructing the cross-impact matrix, where the rows present analysed trends (e.g. the dynamic development of biofuel use), and the columns include the events that may possibly occur in the period in question (e.g. developments in fuel cell technologies, rapid growth of oil prices, population drop, etc). Descriptions in cells lying at the intersection of columns and rows include e.g. the probability of a given event occurring and the expected effect of the interaction. The matrix analysis provides significant assistance in constructing development scenarios.
It is to be emphasised that cross-impact analysis may be conducted in a quantitative manner, when individual impacts are assigned numerical weights, or in a quantitative (descriptive) one. The choice how the mutual impacts are presented depends on the specific needs of the given foresight project.
Critical (key) technology method
This method aims at the identification of short-term (3 to 10 years as a rule) research priorities with high potential in the scope of impact on the desired economic growth and satisfaction of the needs of society, with optimum use of the limited public funds. The method is based on the juxtaposition of a set of criteria used for the assessment of the “criticality” (significance) of individual technologies. The goal behind the method is identification of a list of key technologies with clear indication of relevant political actions, which should allow implementing the process results, and in practice – the establishment of national research and development priorities.
Forms of participation:
expert panels (SWOT, foresight lab)
interviews (analyses and reports)
questionnaires (analyses and reports)
